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Identification and characteristic analysis of compound drought and heat wave
event in Central Asia
YANG Yingjie, CAO Qian, SHUI Yue
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 19-26.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0019
Abstract120)      PDF(pc) (12826KB)(182)    PDF(mobile) (12826KB)(19)    Save
 The compound drought and heat wave has been paid more and more attention and the combined effect is far more than ordinary drought events. The characteristic of the events was explored in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020, based on hourly temperature data and monthly potential evapotranspiration data of the Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and daily multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation data. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperature were calculated to identify the events. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The spatial distribution of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia was not concentrated. The regions with high frequency of the events in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s were mainly distributed in the southeast,north, northwest and west, respectively. (2) In terms of temporal distribution, the general trend of the events had changed from large fluctuation to small fluctuation, and likely to remain stable after 2020. (3) Studying the four typical years of 1984, 1993, 2010 and 2020, it is concluded that the compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia were mainly concentrated in the southeast in 1984, sporadic occurrences in a few scattered regions in 1993, in the north in 2010 and in the west in 2020.

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Impact of different radar data assimilation on a rare strong squall line simulation
CAO Qian, LEI Guilian, YI Yanhong, ZHANG Yizhi, LIU Liangyu, PENG Wangminzi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (3): 469-484.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-03-0469
Abstract371)   HTML20)    PDF(pc) (36127KB)(1159)       Save

The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model along with its three-dimensional data assimilation (3D-Var) system was used to improve the initial field by assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity from Doppler radars. A rare strong squall line occurring on 4 March 2018 in Jiangxi Province was simulated and studied by using the adjusted initial field. It is found that only assimilation of rainwater, snow, graupel particles retrieved from radar reflectivity and water vapor derived from radar reflectivity could not make a stable improvement in forecasting the composite reflectivity, especially got an opposite effect on forecasting surface gale and precipitation. The assimilation of reflectivity data could significantly improve forecast skill when radar radial velocity was assimilated jointly. The reason is that assimilation of radar reflectivity can efficiently adjust initial hydrometeors and thermal field, but it has little effect on initial dynamic field. As the simulation time went by, the adjustment of dynamic field was unreasonable, a false divergence wind field appeared in the upper troposphere, thus a stratiform cloud area appeared in front of the squall line, which was not captured in reality. So the model could not improve the simulation of vertical wind shear and cold pool as well as rear inflow, and then there was a large gap between forecasted results and observations. Only assimilation of radar radial velocity could improve simulation results, and assimilation of both could efficiently adjust initial hydrometeors and thermal fields as well as dynamic field, and make the physical configuration more compatible with reality.The vertical wind shear and wind field structure were more favorable to occurrence of the strong squall line, and then formed a strong cold pool close to reality, further the forecasting results of radar composite reflectivity, surface wind and precipitation of the squall line agreed much better with observations compared with only assimilation of radar radial velocity.

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